GOP poll: Tea party movement could cost Republicans in 2012

Beware, Florida Republicans: The tea party movement that swept you into office in 2010 could cost you the next election.

That’s the takeaway message from Republican pollster and consultant Alex Patton, who conducted a recent survey showing that, by a 2:1 ratio, registered Florida voters said the tea party movement did not represent their views.

The sentiment against the tea party is significantly higher among self-described independent voters, who swing elections in Florida and who looked unfavorably on the tea party by 3-to-1, the poll showed. Only Republican voters favored the tea party movement, with 68 percent in support and less than 20 percent opposed.

“There’s a real danger to Republican candidates,” said Patton, a founder of the Gainesville-based War Room Logistics polling firm.

“If, in a primary race statewide, a candidate hugs the tea party too tightly in order to win the primary,” he said, “it significantly causes you issues in a general election.”

But there’s a catch for Republicans: The tea party movement is dear to the base of the GOP. Last year it helped fuel the Republican takeover in the Florida Cabinet as well as the U.S. House. So Republican candidates for president and U.S. Senate are courting the movement to ensure a primary win before they face off against President Obama or Sen. Bill Nelson in the 2012 general election.

“You’re going to see candidates walk a fine line,” said Tony Fabrizio, pollster for Gov. Rick Scott, who owed much of his success last year to the tea party.

“The tea party of a year ago is different from the tea party of today,” Fabrizio said. “Last year, the tea party was new, fresh and it represented the antigovernment outsider. Now, the brand maybe has a little tarnish.”

At the same time, he said, polls show that Democrats are feeling more energized than they were a year ago. Also, Obama’s favorability ratings have increased in recent months, and most polls show he remains more popular than Scott.

The War Room Logistics survey found that 54 percent viewed Scott unfavorably, while half of voters had a negative impression of Obama.

The survey’s results concerning the tea party in Florida mirror an April USA Today/Gallup poll that showed 47 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of the tea party – an increase of 7 percentage points in just over a year. Meanwhile, favorable impressions of the tea party nationwide have declined 6 percentage points to 33 percent.

Dave Beattie, a Florida-based pollster who conducts surveys for Democratic candidates, said the reasons for the decline in favorable views of the tea party are myriad. Not only has the newness of the tea party brand worn off, Beattie said, but rank-and-file voters have grown weary of its politics.

Voters were nonplussed by Scott’s decision to scotch a high-speed rail project from Orlando to Tampa and his call for an Arizona-style immigration reform plan in Florida, Beattie said. He said the biggest tea-party turnoff: the budget Scott signed that cut education spending.

“Republicans are parents, too, and they don’t like cuts to the classroom,” Beattie said. “It matters to parents, but it doesn’t matter to the tea party movement, which basically says there’s no role for government.”

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Tea Party Movement

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. How about -- The Tea Party Movement?

Do you consider yourself to be -- [ROTATED: a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the Tea Party movement], or neither?

As I read some names and groups, please tell me how much confidence you have in each to do or to recommend the right thing for the economy -- a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or almost none. How about -- Tea Party movement leaders

How important should it be for the Republican leaders in Congress to take into account the objectives and positions of the Tea Party movement when it comes to dealing with the problems facing the nation -- very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

Of the following, who would you like to have the most influence on federal government policies over the next year -- [RANDOM ORDER: President Obama, the Democratic leaders in Congress, the Republican leaders in Congress, (or) Republican members of Congress supported by the Tea Party movement]?

Republican members of Congress supported by the Tea Party movement

The Republican leaders in Congress

The Democratic leaders in Congress

Regardless of whether you support or oppose the Tea Party movement, do you think it has or has not done each of the following? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

Energized people to get more involved in the political process

Made the political parties more responsive to the views of ordinary citizens

Created deeper political divisions in the U.S. than previously existed

Do you consider yourself to be -- [ROTATED: a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the Tea Party movement], or neither?

(Asked of those who support the Tea Party movement) Would you say you are active in the Tea Party movement, or supportive of the Tea Party movement but not active in it? By active, we mean attending Tea Party rallies, donating money or working on the campaigns of candidates endorsed by the Tea Party.

COMBINED RESULTS: BASED ON NATIONAL ADULTS

(Active in Tea Party movement)

(Not active in Tea Party movement)

Since Barack Obama took office, do you think the Republican Party has become more conservative, or not?

(Asked of those who think the Republican Party has gotten more conservative) Do you think the Republican Party has become more conservative mostly because of the influence of the Tea Party movement or mostly for other reasons?

COMBINED RESPONSES: BASED ON NATIONAL ADULTS

(Mostly because of Tea Party influence)

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